Global power demand to grow by 58% in 2040

Mazino Dickson, Abuja

The Global power demand is expected to grow by 58% between now and 2040, which would imply a 2% increase annually.

The intensity of electricity consumption per unit of GDP is projected  to fall by 27% over the next 25 years.

These findings were revealed in the 2017 New Energy Outlook (NEO), Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s annual long-term analysis of the future of energy.

The report also indicated that $10.2 trillion would be invested in new power generation capacity worldwide to 2040. Of this, 72% will go to renewables, or $7.4 trillion.

Renewables

Solar takes $2.8 trillion and wind $3.3 trillion. Investment in renewable energy is projected to increase to around $400 billion per year by 2040, a 2-3% average annual increase. Investment in wind will grow faster than solar ( wind increasing 3.4% and solar 2.3% per year on average).

Wind and solar will account for 48% of installed capacity and 34% of electricity generation world-wide by 2040. This is compared with just 12% and 5% today. Installed solar capacity will increase 14-fold and wind capacity fourfold by 2040.

The study anticipates renewable energy reaching 74% penetration in Germany, 38% in the U.S., 55% in China and 49% in India by 2040 as batteries and new sources of flexibility bolster the reach of renewable.

China and India alone would attract $4 trillion investment in energy. China is expected to draw 28%, and India 11% of total regional investment between 2017-40. Wind and solar will account for around a third of total investment.

Growth in coal demand is centred on Asia, but is offset by sharp declines in Europe and the U.S. Coal-fired generation in China is set to peak within the next 10 years.

China will go big on renewables, with wind and solar capacity increasing eight-fold to 2040; India would significantly expands its coal fleet over the next five years, adding over 40GW of new coal plants.

By 2040, Australia’s electricity system would become one of the most decentralized in the world,

NEO combines the expertise of over 65 in-house country and technology-level specialists in 12 countries to provide a unique assessment of the economic drivers and tipping points that will shape the sector to 2040.