How Putin Has Given South Africa Diplomatic Headache

On Jun 3, 2023

It has been an uncomfortable few months for South African diplomacy.

A country that would like to be seen as a wise and steady ambassador for a negotiated peace in Ukraine, and a crusading champion of a non-aligned, multi-polar world, has been caught up in a string of very public international squabbles that have left its government looking muddled and indecisive, and its currency sinking to new lows.

At issue is South Africa’s warm relationship with Russia – and a growing Western perception that the country has decided to back Moscow in its war against Ukraine, and perhaps even to send it weapons.

But is that perception fair? And what could it all mean for South Africa’s reputation and its increasingly fragile economy?

“It’s a nightmare,” admitted one senior South African official. They were speaking off-the-record in Cape Town this week, on the sidelines of a meeting of foreign ministers of the Brics group, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Western diplomats have privately expressed deep frustration about South Africa’s stance towards Russia and its shaky attempts to live up to its self-declared “impartiality” in relation to the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The government’s heart is with the Russians. There’s no doubt about it. They believe the world is slipping out of Western hands – that the Russians are stronger and will win, and that they’re investing in a strategic future, a new world order,” said Irina Filatova, a Russian academic based in Cape Town

But others here argue that the West has got it all wrong and is misreading South Africa and fretting over what amounts to a storm in a diplomatic teacup.

“Nobody serious within the [South African] government wants to move away from the US, the UK and EU. Everybody knows these are extremely important trade partners. It’s just a mess in terms of timing and perception, not in terms of substance,” argued political analyst Philani Mthembu.

So where did things go wrong?

South Africa’s initial response to Russia’s invasion was to call on Moscow to withdraw its forces “immediately”. Soon afterwards it changed tack, declined to condemn the Kremlin at the United Nations, and adopted a policy of neutrality towards the conflict.

But that neutral stance has since been undermined by a series of actions and statements that have riled Ukraine’s allies.

South Africa hosted Russia’s navy for exercises on the first anniversary of the invasion.

It warmly welcomed a succession of senior Kremlin officials, and later sent its army chief to Moscow on a “combat readiness” trip.

And senior officials here have often repeated Kremlin talking points about how the US is waging a “proxy” war and how a Western-armed Ukraine now poses a threat to Russia.

BBC/Jide Johnson.