African Study Center Recommends Fiscal Stability to Grow Nigeria’s Economy 

The Director of NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies, Amit Jain, during his presentation of the 150-page report tagged “Back to Growth: Priority Agenda for the economic revival of Nigeria,” said Nigeria can attain a positive economic performance over the next ten years, if it follows these four critical factors; the price of oil in the international market, fiscal stability, infrastructure, and investor confidence.

Jain believes that if some of the recommendations made in the report are carried out, Nigeria could achieve an annual GDP growth rate of 7% and emerge as one of the top 20 economies in the world.

At the unveiling event held on Monday, November 27, 2023, at the Eko Hotel and Suites, Lagos, Jain said that although there is little that Nigeria can do to affect the global oil price, Nigeria will be on the path to sustained growth if the country can satisfy three essential conditions:

“Firstly, if international trade and the financial markets remain favourable to Nigeria, it would be able to borrow at concessional rates. Secondly, Nigeria’s demographic dividend will not be felt unless the working-age population has the right skills to exploit opportunities in a changing world. Third, and perhaps most important, is governance. Good governance is critical to ensuring durable economic growth. It would help improve the business climate and repair the social contract between citizens and the state that has been damaged over the years,” said Jain.

According to the report, the priority for Nigeria over the next two years should be to achieve stability.

“Ending fuel subsidy, tightening monetary policy, migrating to a flexible unified exchange rate regime, and curbing oil theft should stop a bad financial situation from worsening,”said Jain.

Jain explained that once stabilisation is achieved, policy priority should shift towards structural transformation, stating that this would require dismantling the many barriers that hobble private enterprise, such as giving priority to ending the power shortage.

The report, while laying out specific time-bound targets, noted that the fiscal space acquired in the first two years of reforms should provide adequate room to crowd in private investments, stressing that once growth is revived, priorities must shift towards ensuring that growth is sustained.

Speaking during a panel session at the event, a renowned economist and Chief Executive Officer of KAINOS Edge Consulting Limited, Dr. Doyin Salami, argued that for Nigeria to witness growth, there is a need for the government to make deliberate investments in education.

According to Salami, investment in education is the best approach to pursuing growth that would exceed the population growth rate.

He stated that Nigeria’s future economic prosperity lies in its investment in the agro-industry, urging the government to restructure its imports if it intends to be a producing nation.

Also speaking, the Chief Executive Officer of MainOne, Ms. Funke Opeke, explained that a lot still needs to be done by the government to create the enabling infrastructure, the enabling access to new technologies, and the right incentives to guarantee growth in the digital economy.

She stated that the digital economy would only unleash its full potential provided the government takes deliberate steps to invest in the right skills.

However, the Chairman of Union Bank, Mr. Farouk Gumel, disclosed that the challenge with Nigeria’s growth has little to do with policies or recommendations but rather with implementation.

Gumel emphasised the need to get more Nigerians, especially MSMEs, bankable to facilitate the desired economic growth, stating that MSMEs remain a major driver.

The NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies (CAS) is a think tank that conducts research, fosters networks, and builds capacity for doing business in Africa. It is located in Singapore and is the only research centre in South-East Asia that looks at Africa from a trade, business, and investment perspective.