Covid: World’s True Pandemic Death Toll

The Covid pandemic has caused the deaths of nearly 15 million people all over the world, the World Health Organization, WHO, estimates.

That is 13% more deaths than normally expected over two years.

In India, there were 4.7 million Covid deaths, it says – 10 times the official figures – and almost a third of Covid deaths globally.

The Indian government has questioned the estimate, saying it has “concerns” about the methodology, but other studies have come to similar conclusions about the scale of deaths in the country.

Graphic showing the breakdown of global excess deaths, with 57% male and 43% female as well as showing middle income countries having the highest proportion of excess deaths at 81%.

The measure used by the WHO is called excess deaths; how many more people died than would normally be expected based on mortality in the same area before the pandemic hit.

These calculations also take into account deaths which were not directly because of Covid but instead caused by its knock-on effects, like people being unable to access hospitals for the care they needed. It also accounts for poor record-keeping in some regions, and sparse testing at the start of the crisis.

But the WHO said “the majority of the extra 9.5 million deaths seen above the 5.4 million Covid deaths reported were thought to be direct deaths caused by the virus, rather than indirect deaths.”

Excess Death
A chart showing by how much excess death are higher than official reported Covid deaths, with Egypt at the top with 11.6 higher, India second with 9.9 times higher and Pakistan third with the excess death toll eight times higher.

Speaking about the scale of the figures, WHO’s data department, Dr. Samira Asma said “It’s a tragedy.”

“It’s a staggering number and it’s important for us to honour the lives that are lost, and we have to hold policymakers accountable,” she said.

“If we don’t count the dead, we will miss the opportunity to be better prepared for the next time.”

Alongside India, countries with the highest total excess deaths included Russia, Indonesia, USA, Brazil, Mexico and Peru, the WHO figures suggest. The numbers for Russia are three-and-a-half times the country’s recorded deaths.

The report also looks at the rates of excess deaths relative to each country’s population size. The UK’s excess mortality rate – like America, Spain and Germany – was above the global average during 2020 and 2021.

Graphic showing the excess deaths rate by country based on WHO estimates, with Peru at the top on 437, Russia on 367 and South Africa on 200. The global average is 96 and China, Japan and Australia show up as having registered negative excess deaths.

Countries with low excess mortality rates included China, which is still pursuing a policy of “zero Covid” involving mass testing and quarantines, Australia, which imposed strict travel restrictions to keep the virus out of the country, Japan and Norway.

The academics who helped compile the report admit their estimates are more speculative for countries in sub-Saharan Africa, because there is little data on deaths in the region. There were no reliable statistics for 41 out of 54 countries in Africa.

BBC /Shakirat Sadiq