The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has endorsed the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), outlining the nation’s core economic benchmarks, projected revenues, and fiscal direction for the next three years.
Addressing State House Correspondents after the Council meeting chaired by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Atiku Bagudu, said the framework was jointly presented by the Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation and senior officials of his ministry.
Bagudu revealed that the Council approved a crude oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026, while a more cautious figure of 1.8 million barrels per day will serve as the basis for budgetary planning.
“The first time, a target oil production as well as benchmark oil production is a production figure of 2.06 million barrels per day, which the management of the oil industry is tasked to produce; however, so that we don’t run into revenue problems, we use a benchmark oil production figure of 1.8 for budget purposes.”
The Council also approved an oil benchmark price of $64 per barrel, alongside a projected exchange rate of ₦1,512/$1 for the 2026 fiscal year.
“But for avoidance of caution, we are using $64 8585 cents, as well as an exchange rate of 1512 to the naira for the year 2026, given that it’s a pre-election year, though there is a lot of election activities pending that can affect, and typically affect, the exchange rate, and the gross rate is projected at $4.68. The Federation revenue is estimated at 50.74 trillion.”
Bagudu said that the federal government’s projected revenue for 2026 stands at ₦34.33 trillion, reflecting ongoing efforts to boost non-oil earnings, strengthen tax administration, and expand the nation’s economic base.
Nigeria’s revenue from all sources is projected at 34.33 trillion, inclusive of 4.98 trillion returned. And this figure is 16% lower than that of the 2025 budget estimate, and the federal government expenditure breakdown by major heads shows that the statutory transfers will be around 3 trillion in debt service expenditure, 10.9 1 trillion, and non-recurrent debt expenditure, which is personnel cost, about 15.27 trillion.
Interestingly, the deficit is projected at 20.1 trillion, which is 3.61% of the estimated GDP.”
He explained that the exchange rate assumption took into account the fact that 2026 precedes a national election year, noting that all parameters were drawn from extensive fiscal and macroeconomic analysis undertaken by the Budget Office and other relevant agencies.
“In addition, the Federal Executive Council took comments and approved the medium-term expenditure planners, fiscal strategy paper for presentation to the National Assembly.
However, it is also noted that Mr President, in addition to this, has taken several steps in his role as the president of the Federation and the chief executive officer of the Federation, where he had invited state governments and local governments, the three tiers of government, to the meeting of the National Economic Council to call for more collaboration and coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, which was approved by the National Economic Council, and the coordinating minister of the economy, the central bank governor and myself are directed to sit with the board periodically.”
Bagudu said that the FEC reviewed comments from ministers and subsequently approved the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC), which guides spending limits and helps ensure a disciplined budgeting process.
Senator Bagudu explained that President Tinubu sought the endorsement of the National Economic Council (NEC) for enhanced vigilance across the Federation to curb revenue leakages arising from illegal activities in the oil and gas sector, as well as in the exploitation of critical minerals.
“Mr President sought the approval of the National Economic Council, and it indeed compact approval that there should be increased Federation vigilance to eliminate revenue loss from illegal activities in the oil and gas sectors, as well as critical mineral sectors.”
He stated that the President also underscored the need for substantial transformational investment in national infrastructure.
Bagudu said that President Tinubu believes that with macroeconomic stability now taking root, it is imperative to sustain the ongoing reforms. He noted that once the outlined measures are fully implemented—alongside the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and the Fiscal Strategy Paper—they will catalyse stronger and more sustained economic growth.
The minister added that the president emphasised and sought the approval of the National Economic Council that, critically, minimum transformational investment is required for infrastructure, and therefore renewed hope for infrastructure funding from both the federal government and constituents of the Federation should be as well as measures to boost domestic production and diligent implementation of the renewed work development programme.
Lateefah Ibrahim