German Opposition Conservatives Wins Election

Germany’s opposition conservatives won the national election on Sunday, putting leader Friedrich Merz on track to be the next chancellor while the far-right Alternative for Germany came in second, its best ever result, exit polls showed.

Following a campaign roiled by a series of violent attacks, and interventions by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, the conservative CDU/CSU bloc won 28.5% of the vote, followed by the AfD with 20%, an exit poll published by ZDF public broadcaster showed.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) tumbled to their worst result since World War Two, with 16.5% of the vote share, according to the ZDF exit poll.

The Greens were on 12% while the FDP hovered around the 5% threshold to enter parliament. A late campaign surge by the far left Die Linke party gave it 9% of the vote while breakaway leftist party BSW led by Sahra Wagenknecht squeezed in on 5%.

The results set the stage for protracted coalition talks and likely mean a three-way coalition made up of one or two of the three same parties that were part of Scholz’s unpopular alliance that collapsed in November.

Merz, 69, has no previous government experience but has promised to provide greater leadership than Scholz and to liaise more with key allies, restoring Germany to the heart of Europe.

A brash economic liberal who has shifted the conservatives to the right, he is considered the antithesis of former conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel, who led Germany for 16 years.

That could leave Scholz in a caretaker role for months, delaying urgently needed policies to revive Europe’s largest economy after two consecutive years of contraction and as companies struggle against global rivals.

Germans are more pessimistic about their living standards now than at any time since the financial crisis in 2008.

Attitudes towards migration have also hardened, a profound shift in German public sentiment since its “Refugees Welcome” culture during Europe’s migrant crisis in 2015, that the AfD has both driven and harnessed.

Musk Weighs In

Sunday’s election came after the collapse last November of Scholz’s coalition of his SPD, the Greens and pro-market FDP in a row over budget spending.

The 12-year old AfD party took second place for the first time in a national election, according to the exit polls.

Support for the AfD, along with a small but significant vote share for the far left and the decline of Germany’s big-tent parties, is increasingly complicating the formation of coalitions and governance.

EU allies are cautiously hopeful the elections might deliver a more coherent government able to help drive forward policy at home and in the bloc.

Some also hope Merz will reform the “debt brake”, a constitutional mechanism to limit government borrowing that critics say has strangled new investment.

Reuters/Ejiofor Ezeifeoma