IMF warns Nigeria, others of hunger-related social unrests
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned African countries, including Nigeria, to brace for possible hunger-related social unrests as a direct consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The warning was contained in the IMF’s latest Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook released in Washington DC, United States of America.
According to the report, the commodity price shock occasioned by the invasion has stalled the positive momentum in the region’s economic recovery, with aggregate growth for 2022 expected to soften to 3.8 percent.
Speaking in a virtual remark, the Director, African Department at the IMF, Mr Abebe Selassie, explained that Africa depends on Russia and Ukraine for about 50 percent of its wheat imports, adding that food price increases would hurt the most vulnerable and may add to social tensions, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected States.
“Food security is already a critical issue across the Sahel. This is a crisis on top of another crisis; of course one which threatens to compound some of the region’s most pressing policy challenges, including the pandemic social and economic legacy, heightened security risks and rising global inflation,” he said.
Furthermore, Selassie said the Russian invasion of Ukraine has adversely affected the entire global economy, with commodity prices lifting inflation trends across the world.
Commenting on the outlook, he noted that Africa faces challenges of high inflation, rising debt, as well as hunger-related social unrests and must act fast to address them, saying there was little room to maneuver.
According to him, Sub-Saharan Africa now faces the highest inflation since 2008, with very high food prices and increased food security concerns across the continent, which would hurt all segments of the population.
“We have the war in Ukraine, the everlasting pandemic, increased inflation, and of course, climate change. The report is titled: New shock with little room to maneuver.
“This follows, of course, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has affected global commodity markets, and it represents a significant setback to the global economy and more so for most Sub-Saharan African countries.
“This latest crisis will be quite consequential for most vulnerable people in the most vulnerable countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.
“The invasion has triggered of course a global economic shock that is hitting the region at the most difficult time, one in which many countries’ remaining policy space has been significantly depleted.
“Most directly, several countries are highly dependent on wheat imports.
“With some sourcing, a large proportion of the imports directly from Ukraine and Russia are going to be impacted as well.
“Higher fertilizer and oil prices will also increase the cost of harvesting, the cost of production and provision of goods and services and erode the living standards quite a bit in many countries.
“Surging oil and food prices are straining external and fiscal balances of many commodity-importing countries, exacerbating regional inflation pressures,” said Selassie.
Source: Agro Nigeria
