The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January 2026, showing a further moderation in inflation following the completion of its recent rebasing exercise.
The latest report, now benchmarked to a new base year of 2024 with a weight reference period of 2023, indicates that the CPI declined to 127.4 in January 2026, reflecting a 3.8-point decrease from the preceding month.
Headline Inflation Eases
On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation stood at 15.10 per cent in January 2026. This represents a slight drop of 0.05 percentage points from 15.15 per cent recorded in December 2025, and a sharp decline from 27.61 per cent in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate fell to -2.88 per cent in January 2026, a 3.42 percentage point decrease compared to the 0.54 per cent recorded in December 2025.
Key Drivers of Inflation
At the divisional level, the largest contributors to headline inflation were:
Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages – 6.04%
Restaurants and Accommodation Services – 1.95%
Transport – 1.61%
The least contributing divisions were:
Recreation, Sport and Culture – 0.05%
Alcoholic Beverages, Tobacco and Narcotics – 0.06%
Insurance and Financial Services – 0.07%
Food Inflation Declines Sharply
Food inflation stood at 8.89 per cent year-on-year in January 2026. On a month-on-month basis, it dropped significantly to -6.02 per cent, down by 5.66 percentage points compared to December 2025 (-0.36%).
The decline was attributed to falling average prices of staple items such as water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tubers and cowpeas, among others.
Core Inflation
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 17.72 per cent year-on-year in January 2026.
Month-on-month, core inflation fell to -1.69 per cent, representing a 2.27 percentage point drop compared to December 2025 (0.58%).
New Sub-Indices Show Mixed Trends
Among the newly introduced sub-indices, Services was the only category that recorded an increase on a month-on-month basis at 0.48 per cent. Other categories declined, including:
Imported Food – -6.81%
Farm Produce – -5.10%
Goods – -4.63%
Energy – -3.13%
However, on a year-on-year basis, Services recorded the highest inflation at 22.17 per cent, followed by Energy (11.17%), Goods (11.03%), Farm Produce (9.76%) and Imported Food (7.62%).
Urban and Rural Inflation
Urban inflation stood at 15.36 per cent year-on-year in January 2026, while month-on-month urban inflation declined to -2.72 per cent from 0.99 per cent in December 2025.
In rural areas, inflation was 14.44 per cent year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation dropped to -3.29 per cent from -0.55 per cent recorded in December 2025.
State-Level Performance
The NBS noted that CPI weights vary across states due to differences in consumption patterns, making direct interstate comparisons potentially misleading.
On a year-on-year basis, all-items inflation was highest in Benue (22.48%), Kogi (20.98%) and Abuja (19.25%). The slowest rise was recorded in Ebonyi (8.72%), Katsina (8.94%) and Imo (10.61%).
On a month-on-month basis, the highest increases were recorded in Imo (1.93%), Ondo (1.93%) and Kaduna (0.67%), while Cross River (-6.34%), Ogun (-6.30%) and Kogi (-6.03%) posted declines.
For food inflation year-on-year, Kogi (19.84%), Benue (18.38%) and Adamawa (17.29%) recorded the highest increases. Ebonyi (1.69%), Abia (3.23%) and Imo (3.74%) recorded the slowest rise.
Month-on-month food inflation declines were most pronounced in Yobe (-11.88%), Nasarawa (-9.06%) and Sokoto (-8.31%).