Oil Prices to Remain Steady in Second Half of 2024

Oil prices will not change much in the second half of 2024 as concerns around demand from China and prospects of higher supply from key producers counter risks from geopolitical tensions, a poll has indicated.

A poll of 44 analysts by Reuters and economists surveyed in the last two weeks forecast the global benchmark, Brent crude , would average $83.93 per barrel in 2024, just shy of the $84.01 consensus in the previous month’s poll.

The forecast for average 2024 U.S. crude , at $79.72, was slightly above May’s poll result of $79.56.

Brent crude futures have averaged $83.4 thus far in 2024, after brief spikes to as high as $92.18, driven by supply risks due to the conflict in the Middle East.

However, a few analysts said prices could jump to the $90 mark and potentially beyond, depending on a variety of factors including summer consumption, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and output curbs from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Analysts expect oil demand to grow by between 0.99 and 1.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2024, slightly above the 0.96 mbpd forecast by the Paris-based International Energy Agency.