Risk Of Violence Escalates In Myanmar’s Civil War

Myanmar’s embattled ruling generals are facing the risk of escalation of violence, as they try to gain legitimacy – by pushing to hold another election, Four years after seizing power in a dawn coup that ousted an elected civilian government.

In the last two months, the junta has proposed plans to neighbours for an election in 2025, released the results of a census conducted to prepare voters lists, and announced in state media that it is working to ensure “stability” for the polls.

Together, these moves amount to the most serious declaration of intent by Myanmar’s junta to hold an election since it toppled the government of Aung San Suu Kyi on Feb. 1, 2021, but they come amid a grinding civil war where the military has steadily lost ground nationwide.

With many forces opposing the junta and the election, tensions are set to rise ahead of the ballot, which brings the risk of more violence as both sides push to increase their control of territory, according to eight people, including analysts, rebels and diplomatic sources.

A date for the election has not been announced, but with voting in only about half the country, dozens of opposition groups banned and only pre-vetted, pro-military parties in the race, the exercise has already been derided as a sham by critics.

The junta was able to conduct a full, on-ground census only in 145 of the country’s 330 townships, according to the census report published in December. The generals are currently planning to hold the election in only 160-170 of the townships towards the end of the year, according a source with knowledge of discussions in Naypyidaw, the capital.

“They want to go ahead,” the source said, asking not to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter, adding that the junta would look to stabilise those areas ahead of the polls.

A junta spokesman did not respond to calls seeking comment.

An armed opposition, comprising established ethnic armies and new resistance groups formed since the coup, have wrested chunks of territory from the junta, driving it out of border areas and increasingly hemming the territory it controls into the central lowlands.

“This will inevitably escalate the conflict to an unprecedented level,” said Ye Myo Hein, a Myanmar analyst at the United States Institute of Peace, of the upcoming election.

Myanmar is currently in a state of emergency that is set to expire by the end of January, and speculation is mounting whether the junta will declare another six-month extension or instead announce the election date ahead of the coup anniversary.

Reuters/Ejiofor Ezeifeoma