United Nations Cautiously Awaits Trump’s Return To Power

The United Nations has been cautiously planning for the possible return of Donald Trump, with the cuts to U.S. funding and engagement with world body that are likely to come with his second term as president.

There was a sense of “déjà vu and some trepidation” at the 193-member world body, said one senior Asian diplomat, as Republican Trump won Tuesday’s U.S. election over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

“There is also some hope that a transactional administration will engage the U.N. on some areas even if it were to defund some dossiers. After all, what bigger and better global stage is there than the United Nations?” said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

A U.S. retreat at the U.N. could open the door for China, which has been building its influence in global diplomacy.

Trump has offered few specifics about foreign policy in his second term but supporters say the force of his personality and his “peace through strength” approach will help bend foreign leaders to his will.

He has vowed to solve the war in Ukraine and is expected to give strong support to Israel in its conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and southern Lebanon.

Among the top concerns at the U.N. are whether the United States will decide to contribute less money to the world body and withdraw from key multinational institutions and agreements, including the world Heath Organization and the Paris climate agreement.

U.S. funding is the immediate worry. Washington is the U.N.’s largest contributor – with China second – accounting for 22% of the core U.N. budget and 27% of the peacekeeping budget.

A country can be up to two years in arrears before facing the possible repercussion of losing its General Assembly vote.

Extremely Hard Line

Trump came to power last time proposing to cut about a third off U.S. diplomacy and aid budgets, which included steep reductions in funding for U.N. peacekeeping and international organizations. But Congress, which sets the federal U.S. government budget, pushed back on Trump’s proposal.

A U.N. spokesperson said at the time the proposed cuts would have made it impossible to continue all essential work.

“The U.N. secretariat has known that they could face a Trump comeback all year. There has been prudent planning behind the scenes on how to manage potential U.S. budget cuts,” said Richard Gowan, U.N. director at the International Crisis Group.

“So (U.N. Secretary-General Antonio) Guterres and his team are not totally unprepared, but they know the next year will be extremely hard,” he said.

Reuters/Ejiofor Ezeifeoma