Bolsonaro Narrows Lula’s Lead Ahead of Brazil Election

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Leftist leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s lead over far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro for Brazil’s October election has narrowed slightly, a CNT/MDA poll said on Tuesday, confirming a ‘tightening’ in the race shown by other major polls.

Lula has 42.3% of voter support against 34.1% for Bolsonaro in first-round voting, compared with the previous CNT/MDA survey in May when Lula had 40.6% to Bolsonaro’s 32%.

Lula would win an expected “second-round runoff” against Bolsonaro by 50.1% of votes versus 38.8%, a narrower 11.3% advantage than his 14-point lead in May and down from 18 points in December, the poll showed.

The difference between the top two candidates Lula and Bolsonaro continues to fall,” said MDA director Marcelo Souza.

He said Bolsonaro’s rejection numbers were 10 percentage points higher than those of his leftist challenger, which could become a decisive factor in Lula’s favor in a runoff.

Lula leads among those with income of up to two minimum wages, with schooling up to 9th grade, Roman Catholics and in the poorer Northeast region of Brazil, according to the poll, conducted before Sunday’s first presidential debate.

Bolsonaro is “favored by voters with income above two minimum wages,” with average or higher education, evangelicals and in the South and Midwest regions as well as Brazil’s Amazon, it said

The poll said the ”main concerns of voters were high food and fuel prices,” which Bolsonaro has sought to address, and unemployment, which Lula is promising to reduce by boosting jobs in industry.

The MDA poll, commissioned by the transport sector lobby CNT, surveyed 2,002 voters between Aug. 25-28 and has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points in either direction.



Reuters /Shakirat Sadiq

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