Average global temperatures are expected to remain near record highs over the next five years, with the Arctic warming significantly faster than the rest of the world, according to a new report released Thursday by the United Nations weather agency and the UK Met Office.
The report forecasts global temperatures to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels recorded between 1850 and 1900.
“There’s very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature is continuing to rise,” said Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries pledged to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to reduce the impact of extreme climate events.
2024 Warmest Year Record Likely To Be Surpassed
The report said there is a high probability that global temperatures will temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold in at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
It also projected that one of those years could become hotter than 2024, currently the warmest year ever recorded after temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time.
Seabrook explained that temporarily crossing the 1.5°C mark does not mean the Paris climate target has failed because the agreement measures long-term averages over two decades rather than a single year.
“The science is very clear that the window to keeping the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees is closing rapidly,” she added.
More Severe Weather Events Expected
The report warned that Arctic winter temperatures are projected to rise more than three-and-a-half times faster than the global average over the next five years, reaching about 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 average.
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Sea ice loss is also expected in parts of the Arctic, including the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
Scientists warned that rapid Arctic warming could disrupt weather systems and contribute to more severe weather events, especially across northern regions.
The report also forecast wetter conditions in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel, while drier conditions are expected in the Amazon region.
In addition, a strong El Nino weather pattern is predicted this winter and could continue into 2027, potentially pushing global temperatures to new records as Pacific Ocean waters warm.
