The Nigerian equities market recorded a 57 per cent return in the first seven months of 2026, driven predominantly by domestic capital.
This was stated by the Managing Director of Coronation Asset Management, Aigbovbioise Aig-Imoukhuede.
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Aig-Imoukhuede, speaking at the H1 2026 Capital Market Review and Outlook for the second half of the year, said the performance of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) reflected stronger domestic participation, improving macroeconomic conditions and rising investor confidence, rather than significant foreign capital inflows.
He identified domestic institutional investors, particularly pension funds, as important contributors to the equities rally following changes to investment thresholds by the National Pension Commission (PenCom).
According to the review, as of the end of July 2026, the NGX All-Share Index had gained 57 per cent, while total market capitalisation increased by N58.9tn to N158.2tn.
The performance placed Nigeria among the world’s strongest-performing equity markets in dollar terms, according to Bloomberg data.
However, Aig-Imoukhuede cautioned that the scale of the rally should prompt investors to assess whether the performance represented a sustainable structural recovery or a temporary market re-rating.
Identifying the changing composition of market participation as one of the most significant features of the 2026 rally, he said domestic investors have become the dominant force behind the market’s performance, even as foreign participation has declined.
Data showed that by June 2026, foreign investors accounted for 12.1 per cent of total NGX transaction value, down from 27 per cent a year earlier.
Aig-Imoukhuede, however, said the decline in foreign participation should not be interpreted as a complete withdrawal of international investors from Nigeria.
He noted that the value of foreign investors’ portfolios increased modestly from N1.13tn to N1.16tn during the first half of the year, suggesting that the major shift was in the relative scale of domestic investment activity.
Aig-Imoukhuede attributed part of the foreign investors’ positioning to the attractiveness of short-dated Nigerian government securities, which offered yields close to 20 per cent.
Despite the strong performance, he acknowledged that the rally had been relatively narrow and that the market would need broader participation and stronger fundamentals to sustain the gains.
He said the key question for the second half of 2026 was therefore not whether the rally would simply continue, but whether Nigeria could attract a new wave of international capital.
According to him, the second half of the year could represent a potential re-entry window for foreign investors as conditions around market classification, foreign-exchange liquidity, reserves and corporate earnings continue to improve.
