The International credit rating agency, Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s credit outlook from Stable to Positive, citing sustained economic reforms, stronger foreign exchange reserves and easing inflationary pressures.
The Federal Ministry of Finance disclosed this in a statement issued in Abuja on Saturday, following Fitch’s decision on October 9, 2026, to affirm Nigeria’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at ‘B’ while revising the outlook to Positive.
The ministry noted that the decision reflected growing confidence in the Nigerian Government’s economic reform programme and its potential to improve the country’s creditworthiness.
Fitch attributed the improved outlook to greater flexibility in the foreign exchange market, declining inflation and faster-than-expected accumulation of external reserves.
Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves stood at 54.9 billion dollars as of September 25, 2026, compared with 32 billion dollars in mid-April 2024.
The rating agency linked the increase to improved formal foreign exchange transactions, strong portfolio inflows, higher export earnings and remittances.
It also projected a current account surplus of 6.4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2026, indicating an improvement in Nigeria’s external position.
On economic growth, Fitch forecast that Nigeria’s real GDP would expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026, compared with four per cent in 2025, with growth expected to remain above four per cent in 2027 and 2028, driven largely by non-oil activities.
The agency further noted that crude oil production had met Nigeria’s Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026.
It added that increased domestic refining capacity was helping to reduce refined petroleum product imports and demand for foreign exchange.
Average inflation was projected to moderate to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.
On public finances, Fitch expected the implementation of tax reforms to increase non-oil revenue, while general government debt was projected to average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, significantly below the 56 per cent median for countries rated ‘B’.
The agency also acknowledged the depth of Nigeria’s domestic debt market and the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise, noting that many banks now had capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent.
Reacting to the development, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said the revised outlook further validated the difficult but necessary reforms undertaken by the administration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Oyedele cited the removal of fuel subsidy, unification of the foreign exchange market and tax reforms as key measures supporting Nigeria’s improving economic outlook.
He explained that the government’s medium-term ambition was to put Nigeria firmly on the path to investment-grade credit status, stressing that the objective went beyond securing favourable ratings.
According to the minister, the reforms were intended to lower the country’s cost of capital, attract private investment and create decent jobs on a large scale.
Oyedele, however, acknowledged the challenges identified by Fitch, including inflation remaining above levels in peer countries, low government revenue relative to the size of the economy and high debt-servicing costs.
He reaffirmed the government’s commitment to sustaining foreign exchange reforms, improving tax administration, strengthening fiscal governance, diversifying the economy and translating macroeconomic stability into improved living standards.
The minister noted that sustained disinflation, stronger external reserves and improved mobilisation of non-oil revenue would remain central to the government’s economic strategy.
With Fitch’s latest decision, all three major international credit rating agencies had taken positive rating actions on Nigeria in 2026.
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised its outlook to Positive in August.
Separately, FTSE Russell returned Nigeria to Frontier Market status, effective September 21, 2026.
The Nigerian Government maintained that the developments reflected an increasingly favourable assessment of the country’s reform trajectory, while acknowledging that further progress was required to strengthen public revenue, control inflation and improve economic resilience.
