The Nigerian stock market is expected to stage a mild recovery in the second half of 2026, supported by stronger corporate earnings and ongoing macroeconomic reforms.
This, according to the Chief Executive Officer of HighCap Securities Limited, David Adonri, is despite high interest rates and political risks.
Adonri, at the Capital Market Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CAMCAN) Mid-Year Review in Lagos, said the recent correction on the Nigerian Exchange should not be seen as structural weakness, but as institutional portfolio repositioning after a reform-driven rally.
“The current market correction is a result of institutional investors repositioning their portfolios and not an indication of a breakdown in market fundamentals,” he noted.
Adonri projected that equities would regain momentum as investors respond to improved earnings and economic indicators.
He however cautioned that inflationary pressures, insecurity, the build-up to the 2027 elections, simultaneous capital-raising exercises and geopolitical tensions in the Gulf could weigh on performance.
Adonri pointed to the anticipated listing of the Dangote Refinery as a potential game changer for the market, alongside the activation of commercial papers and derivatives to deepen liquidity.
Game Changers
According to him, other game changers for the include:
* Nigeria’s reform agenda receiving international endorsement, with the IMF acknowledging improved outcomes and credit rating agencies upgrading the country’s sovereign ratings. In May, S&P Global raised Nigeria to B from B-, Fitch affirmed a stable outlook at B, and Moody’s upgraded to B3 from Caa1.
*Growth forecasts remaining upbeat, with the World Bank and IMF projecting 4.1 percent expansion in 2026, while the Central Bank of Nigeria expects 4.49 percent.
*Rising crude oil output, expanding refining capacity, stronger reserves and a stable naira.
Adonri reiterated that while risks persist, the fundamentals remain intact and the market is positioned for gradual recovery in the second half of 2026 as institutional investors complete portfolio adjustments and reforms continue to gain traction.
